Dover, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

199
FXUS61 KPHI 170136
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
936 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty showers, thunderstorms, and humidity continue through
Saturday morning ahead of a couple of cold fronts that passes
through Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. High pressure
builds into the area on Sunday and persists into Tuesday before
another period of unsettled weather returns Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Evening convection is pretty much done with as the second MCS is
now off the coast. Bulk of tonight looks pretty tranquil, though
will need to keep an eye on patchy fog development which could
necessitate more dense fog advisories. At this time, however,
guidance is notably less robust on the fog threat compared to 24
hours ago.

Convection well to our west in the Ohio Valley may reach us late
tonight into early morning Saturday, but guidance has been less
enthusiastic about this compared to earlier model runs. This
likely has to do with the efficient overturning of the
atmosphere locally, not to mention its arrival late at
night/early in the morning. Thus, have some chance pops
overnight into the morning, but knocked likelies out of the
forecast. Severe and flood risk also look much reduced with any
convection overnight into the morning, but not quite zero,
especially the flood risk given the copious rain of late. Lows
mostly in the 60s tonight.

Any morning showers/t-storms should end toward noon as it moves
east of the region, with one cold front (perhaps better
described as a dry line) moving through towards midday. Dew
points will drop into the 50s behind this first boundary, which
will make any convective development later in the day notably
more difficult. This has been noticed by the guidance, which
have become considerably less enthusiastic in thunderstorms
after midday Saturday compared to how they looked a day or two
ago, so have mostly slight chance POPS, mainly north of Philly,
with chance in the far north. Highs will be quite warm with the
sun returning, with 80s common and perhaps even a stray 90 or
two.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Secondary front moves through in the evening, with notable cold
advection occurring behind it. The threat for storms wanes
completely with its passage in addition to the loss of daytime
heating. Nighttime lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Sunday is looking like the better half of the weekend as
tranquil weather returns with the upper trough moving further
east. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with dry
conditions and lower humidity. Perhaps an isolated shower is
possible north and west, but general thinking is most of the
area will stay dry. The one thing to note is winds will increase
as diurnal mixing occurs as the area lies wedged between
systems resulting in a tightening pressure gradient. Wind gusts
up 30-35 mph will be possible. Gusts will diminish into Sunday
night under mostly clear skies. Despite the windy conditions,
high temperatures should mainly be in the 70s (with 60s in the
Poconos).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Monday, low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will begin
to move further east into the North Atlantic. At the same time,
high pressure will settle over the Mid-Atlantic before moving
offshore on Tuesday. Aloft, the area will be situated under
northwest flow in wake of exiting upper trough. All in all, a
tranquil weather period is in store with mostly clear skies,
light winds and dry weather.

By Tuesday night and through the middle of the week, our
attention will turn to our next weather system which will take
aim at the area. Global and ensemble guidance both feature a
deep upper trough moving into the Great Lakes/Northeast region
around the middle of the week with a potential coastal low
developing before moving up towards New England. This would
indicate another period of unsettled weather with periods of
rain starting as early as Tuesday night, and more so on
Wednesday and Thursday. Still quite a ways out from this
potential, so have generally stuck with NBM guidance and capped
rain chances at chance (~30-50%).

In terms of temperatures, we`ll encounter temperatures around
average on Monday, before dipping below average for Tuesday
through Thursday as the area remains situated within the deep
upper trough.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Tonight...Evening showers/storms moved out already this
evening, but the potential for low cigs and low visbys once
again due to stratus, mist and fog remains. However, atmosphere
was cleansed fairly well by earlier convection, so guidance has
backed off on the low cig/vsby threat somewhat. More showers and
storms could move in late tonight, however. S to SW winds
around 5 knots. Low confidence.

Saturday...Sub VFR conditions possible early in the morning with
showers and storms around. Otherwise, primarily VFR expected.
Very isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon and early evening, but much lower coverage than today.
Winds WSW around 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Low confidence
on showers and storms in the morning and even lower confidence
on activity in the afternoon; moderate confidence otherwise.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR. Winds W to WNW 10 kts or less.

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR. Gusty winds up to 25-30 kt
possible on Sunday. Otherwise, no significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally sub SCA, except storms overnight into early Saturday
morning could produce locally strong winds. Will also need to
watch fog potential, as guidance still suggests dense fog may
try to redevelop, in which case a dense fog advisory may yet be
needed on the waters.

A few extremely isolated showers and storms possible Saturday
afternoon, but overall the threat is much reduced compared to
today. SW winds gust to around 15-20 kts in the afternoon, but
no headlines expected.

Outlook...

Saturday night...No marine headlines expected.

Sunday through Sunday night...SCA conditions possible due to
wind gusts up to 25 kt.

Monday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected.

Rip currents...
Currently projecting low risk of rip currents over the weekend
based on low wave heights of 1-2 feet and winds shifting
offshore at 10-15 mph.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The Coastal Flood Advisory for northwestern Burlington and lower
Bucks Counties has been extended until 8 AM Saturday. Minor
coastal flooding is expected with the early morning high tide
on Saturday. It`s possible minor coastal flooding may occur on
Sunday as well, where further extensions may be needed.

For areas of the lower tidal Delaware River near Philadelphia
may encounter spotty minor coastal flooding through Saturday,
but should fall short of advisory levels.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...DeSilva/RCM
LONG TERM...DeSilva
AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/RCM
MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI